How do I calculate osteoporosis fracture risk?

Enter sex, age and body weight (or DXA T-score), plus the number of fractures after age 50 and falls in the past year. Using the Garvan model, the calculator returns your 5- and 10-year risk of a major fracture and, separately, a hip fracture.

How is this different from FRAX?

FRAX is a closed algorithm (its coefficients are not published), so FRAX itself cannot be reproduced exactly. We calculate with the open, validated Garvan model, which addresses the same task and additionally accounts for the number of fractures and falls. This is not the official FRAX service, but an honest alternative based on a published formula.

Which T-score means osteoporosis?

By WHO, osteoporosis is a T-score of −2.5 and below. −1.0 to −2.5 is osteopenia (low density), −1.0 and above is normal. If a fracture has already occurred with osteoporosis, it is called severe osteoporosis.

What is a major osteoporotic fracture?

A fracture of the spine, hip, forearm (radius) or upper arm — the typical osteoporotic fractures that happen after a minor injury. The calculator estimates their combined risk and, separately, the risk of a hip fracture.

Can I calculate without a DXA scan?

Yes. Without a DXA scan the calculator uses body weight as a rough proxy. Entering the femoral-neck T-score makes the estimate more accurate and adds a WHO reading of your bone density.

Osteoporosis fracture risk calculator (FRAX alternative)

This calculator estimates the chance of a fracture over the next 5 and 10 years — from age, sex, number of prior fractures and falls. If you have a DXA scan, enter the femoral-neck T-score: the estimate becomes more accurate and you also get a WHO reading of your bone density. No DXA — it estimates from body weight. This is what people often look for as the “FRAX score”: we calculate with the open, validated Garvan model.

Estimate fracture risk and read your T-score

Enter sex, age and body weight (or T-score) — the result appears instantly.

DXA T-score: normal, osteopenia, osteoporosis (WHO)

WHO classification by femoral-neck or spine T-score (postmenopausal women and men 50+). Osteoporosis with a fracture already present is called severe. In younger and premenopausal people, density is judged by the Z-score, not the T-score.

T-score	Bone density (WHO)
−1.0 and above	Normal
−1.0 to −2.5	Osteopenia (low)
−2.5 and below	Osteoporosis

What the fracture risk calculator shows

The tool estimates absolute risk — the probability, in percent, that a fracture occurs within the next 5 or 10 years. Two outcomes are computed: a major osteoporotic fracture (spine, hip, forearm, upper arm) and, separately, a hip fracture — the most serious in its consequences.

It is not a verdict or a diagnosis, but a guide: it helps you decide whether to discuss a DXA scan, prevention or treatment with your doctor. Treatment decisions are made on the whole picture, not a single number.

How it works: the Garvan model and how it differs from FRAX

Calculations use the Garvan model (Garvan Institute, Australia) — its coefficients are openly published and externally validated on independent cohorts. FRAX, by contrast, is a closed algorithm (its coefficients are not published), so FRAX itself cannot be faithfully reproduced — but both models address the same task and give a similar 10-year risk.

Garvan’s key feature: it accounts not only for the fact of prior fractures and falls but for their number — and falls are what often cause a fracture. FRAX in turn factors in more variables (smoking, hormone use, family history, rheumatoid arthritis). We calculate with Garvan and name the model honestly — this calculator is not the official FRAX service.

DXA and the T-score: what the numbers mean

A DXA scan measures bone mineral density and expresses it as a T-score — how many standard deviations your density differs from that of a healthy young adult. The lower (more negative) the T-score, the weaker the bone.

By WHO: a T-score of −1.0 and above is normal; −1.0 to −2.5 is osteopenia (low density); −2.5 and below is osteoporosis. Enter your T-score and the calculator both refines the risk estimate and shows which zone your density falls into.

What raises the risk and what lowers it

Risk rises with age, is higher in women (especially after menopause), with low body weight, a low T-score, and if you have had fractures or frequent falls. Smoking, heavy alcohol use, long-term glucocorticoids and vitamin D deficiency add to it.

Strength and balance exercise, quitting smoking, enough protein, calcium and vitamin D, and removing fall hazards (vision, dizziness, slippery floors) help lower it. Specific prevention and, if needed, medication are chosen by a doctor — this calculator does not provide doses or regimens.

One estimate is not a diagnosis

The model is calibrated for people aged 50+ and gives an estimate, not a guarantee: the real outcome depends on factors not in the formula. A low calculated risk does not remove the need for care, and a high one does not mean a fracture is inevitable.

If the result is concerning, or you have already had a fracture from a minor injury, show your DXA and lab tests (calcium, vitamin D, parathyroid hormone) to a doctor. The calculator is a reason to talk, not a replacement for it.

Frequently asked questions

Enter sex, age and body weight (or DXA T-score), plus the number of fractures after age 50 and falls in the past year. Using the Garvan model, the calculator returns your 5- and 10-year risk of a major fracture and, separately, a hip fracture.
FRAX is a closed algorithm (its coefficients are not published), so FRAX itself cannot be reproduced exactly. We calculate with the open, validated Garvan model, which addresses the same task and additionally accounts for the number of fractures and falls. This is not the official FRAX service, but an honest alternative based on a published formula.
By WHO, osteoporosis is a T-score of −2.5 and below. −1.0 to −2.5 is osteopenia (low density), −1.0 and above is normal. If a fracture has already occurred with osteoporosis, it is called severe osteoporosis.
A fracture of the spine, hip, forearm (radius) or upper arm — the typical osteoporotic fractures that happen after a minor injury. The calculator estimates their combined risk and, separately, the risk of a hip fracture.
Yes. Without a DXA scan the calculator uses body weight as a rough proxy. Entering the femoral-neck T-score makes the estimate more accurate and adds a WHO reading of your bone density.

Bones are also about labs: calcium, vitamin D, parathyroid hormone

Upload your report or DXA scan — AI reads the values together, links them to bone density and suggests what to discuss with your doctor.

Decode my lab results

This calculator is for reference and information only and is not a diagnosis. Fracture risk, the need for a DXA scan and treatment are determined by a doctor from the whole clinical picture.